Working Papers
"Rooted at Home: How Domestic Migration Separates Voters into National and Local Electorates" 2024. [link]
This paper asks how domestic migration transforms electoral politics in rich democracies. I start by describing the political differences between movers and stayers: while movers are more invested in national politics, stayers are more invested in local politics. Because of these differences, a nationally-minded electorate emerges in in-migration areas, while the electorate in out-migration areas becomes more locally-minded. These compositional changes affect the extent to which local elections are nationalized, leading to the dominance of national politics in in-migration areas and of local politics in out-migration areas. This process draws the attention of political parties to in-migration areas, resulting in the systematic underrepresentation of out-migration areas. I support these arguments using household panel data as well as data on cross-county migration, voting in local and national elections, and political selection in contemporary Germany. The paper identifies domestic migration as a little-acknowledged yet key factor shaping democratic functioning and stability.
"Not Always Backlash: The Rise of Refugee Support Organizations During the European Refugee Crisis." 2024. [link]
How do native voters respond to refugee inflows? While past scholarship largely emphasizes popular backlash, this paper studies welcoming responses. I focus specifically on the building of durable institutions, which have received only scant attention so far. Analyzing comprehensive data on refugee support organizations (RSOs) in Germany, I demonstrate that the creation of RSOs during the recent refugee crisis was associated with domestic in-migration. This effect is not driven by differential demand among refugees or the selection of movers into liberal communities. I argue instead that domestic migration contributes to geographic polarization by concentrating voters who, due to their sociopolitical characteristics and past experiences, are particularly likely to support refugees. Household panel data substantiates the idea that movers became more likely to volunteer during the refugee crisis. The paper contributes to our understanding of refugee integration and joins a nascent literature on domestic migration and geographic polarization in rich democracies.
Does voters' political behavior change after a move? To answer this question, this paper analyzes comprehensive data on all domestic moves in Germany and a large household panel survey. I document that most residential moves in Germany occur between socio-politically similar contexts, which limits the room for behavioral change following a move. Analysis of household panel data reveal important differences between national and local politics. I demonstrate that migrants' interest and participation in national politics remains largely unchanged after a move. This is also the case if the move occurs between very dissimilar places or among relatively young voters. By contrast, a domestic move comes with a temporary decline in migrants' participation in local politics and local civic engagement. I propose that moves temporarily raise the costs of participation in local politics, which explains this decline. The paper's findings contribute to nascent scholarship on how domestic migration reshapes electoral politics in rich democracies and further our understanding of the origins of social and political polarization.
"A Little Lift in the Iron Curtain: Emigration Restrictions and the Stability of Closed Regimes." 2024. [link]
How does emigration influence authoritarian stability when it is restricted? I propose that emigration restrictions serve as screening devices that help identify potential troublemakers among emigration-seekers. The departure of these individuals improves regime stability but can also backfire and create more demand for emigration. The paper supports these arguments by analyzing an emigration reform in socialist East Germany, which resulted in the departure of about 54,000 citizens. Analyzing novel county-level panel data on crimes covering the period 1976-1989, I show that emigration was associated with a decline in both ordinary and anti-regime crimes after the reform, but also a sharp increase in attempted illegal border crossings. New panel data on emigration-related petitions suggests that this surge in border-related crimes was the consequence of increased demand for emigration. The paper refines our understanding of how emigration influences authoritarian stability and offers new insights into the politics of closed regimes.
"Do Autocrats Respond to Citizen Demands? Petitions and Housing Construction in the GDR” (with Hanno Hilbig and Sascha Riaz). 2023. [link]
Citizens in authoritarian regimes frequently communicate grievances to the government. While there is some evidence that governments respond to such petitions, little is known about the nature of this responsiveness: can petitions yield tangible improvements to citizens' livelihoods? To answer this question, we assemble a novel panel of housing-related petitions to the government of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) and all housing constructed between 1945--1989. Exploiting the timing of the largest housing program in 1971, we employ a difference-in-differences design to show that construction was targeted at regions with higher rates of petitioning. We then use a variance decomposition method to benchmark the importance of petitions against objective indicators of housing need. Our results suggest that petitions allow citizens to meaningfully influence the allocation of public resources. Our paper contributes to nascent scholarship on responsiveness in non-democratic regimes and shows that responsiveness leads to tangible improvements in citizens' livelihoods.
"Moving Where They Are Welcome? State Immigration Policies and Secondary Migration among Immigrants in the United States.” 2024. [link]
How do state immigration policies influence secondary migration among immigrants in the United States? To answer this question, this paper presents the results of two studies. Study 1 draws on microdata from the American Community Survey for 2000-21 and exploits spatial and temporal variation in welcoming and exclusionary state immigration legislation to demonstrate that state immigration policies can indeed influence state-to-state migration among likely unauthorized immigrants. Study 2 implements an original survey among first-generation Mexican immigrants to probe this finding further. Embedded in the survey is a conjoint experiment that allows us to compare the effect of immigration policies with that of other factors shaping migration decisions. I find that while immigration policies are an important predictor of destination choice, even among naturalized citizens, their effect is trumped by economic opportunities. These findings contribute to research on the integration of unauthorized immigrants and contribute novel evidence to a controversial policy debate.